EU Poised to Sanction Iran on Crackdown01/29 06:18

   

   BRUSSELS (AP) -- The European Union appeared poised Thursday to sanction 
Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard and list it as a terrorist group over 
Tehran's deadly crackdown on nationwide protests, further squeezing the Islamic 
Republic as it faced U.S. threats to potentially launch a military strike 
against it.

   U.S. forces have moved the USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile 
destroyers into the Mideast that can be used to launch attacks from the sea. 
President Donald Trump has threatened military action in response to the 
killing of peaceful demonstrators and over possible mass executions, though it 
remains unclear whether he will decide to use force. At least 6,373 people have 
been killed in Iran's protests, activists said.

   For its part, Iran has said it could launch a pre-emptive strike or broadly 
target the Mideast, including American military bases in the region and Israel.

   The EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, told journalists Thursday it was 
"likely" fresh sanctions would be put in place on the Revolutionary Guard, 
which has played a key role in suppressing the demonstrations.

   "This will put them on the same footing with al-Qaida, Hamas, Daesh," Kallas 
said, using an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State group. "If you act as a 
terrorist, you should also be treated as a terrorist."

   If approved, the sanctions by the EU, which the bloc's member states have 
long discussed, could put fresh pressure on Iran as its economy already 
struggles under the weight of multiple international sanctions from countries 
including the U.S. and Britain. The Guard holds vast business interest across 
Iran, and sanctions could see any of its assets in Europe seized.

   Iran's rial currency fell to a record low of 1.6 million to $1 on Thursday. 
Economic woes had sparked the protests that broadened into challenging the 
theocracy before the crackdown.

   EU 'likely' to sanction the Guard

   Iran had no immediate comment, but it has been criticizing Europe in recent 
days as it considered the move, which follows the U.S. sanctioning the Guard in 
2019.

   By EU law, sanctions require unanimity across the bloc's 27 nations. That's 
at times hindered Brussels' ability to take quick action, such as responding to 
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

   France had objected to listing the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist 
organization over fears it would endanger French citizens detained in Iran, as 
well as diplomatic missions, which provide some of the few communication 
channels between the Islamic Republic and Europe and its allies. However, the 
office of President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday signaled Paris backed the 
decision.

   French Foreign Minister Jean-Nol Barrot said Thursday before the Foreign 
Affairs Council in Brussels that France supports more sanctions in Iran and the 
listing "because there can be no impunity for the crimes committed."

   "In Iran, the unbearable repression that has engulfed the peaceful revolt of 
the Iranian people cannot go unanswered," he said.

   Kristina Kausch, a deputy director at the German Marshall Fund, said the 
listing would be "a symbolic act" showing that for the EU "the dialogue path 
hasn't led anywhere and now it's about isolation and containment as a priority."

   "The designation of a state military arm, of an official pillar of the 
Iranian state as a terrorist organization is one step short of cutting 
diplomatic ties," she said. "But they haven't cut diplomatic times and they 
won't."

   Guard key to crackdown

   The Guard was born from Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution as a force meant to 
protect its Shiite cleric-overseen government and later enshrined in its 
constitution. It operated in parallel to the country's regular armed forces, 
growing in prominence and power during a long and ruinous war with Iraq in the 
1980s. Though it faced possible disbandment after the war, Supreme Leader 
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei granted it powers to expand into private enterprise, 
allowing it to thrive.

   The Guard's Basij force likely was key in putting down the demonstrations, 
starting in earnest from Jan. 8, when authorities cut off the internet and 
international telephone calls for the nation of 85 million people. Videos that 
have emerged from Iran via Starlink satellite dishes and other means show men 
likely belonging to its forces shooting and beating protesters.

   Sanctioning the Guard, however, would be complicated. Iranian men once 
reaching the age of 18 are required to do up to two years of military service, 
and many find themselves conscripted into the Guard despite their own politics.

   Meanwhile, the hard-line Keyhan newspaper again raised the specter of Tehran 
attempting to militarily close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the 
Persian Gulf through which 20% of the world's oil passes. Such a move likely 
would see U.S. military intervention.

   "Today, Iran and its allies have their finger on a trigger that, at the 
first enemy mistake, will sever the world's energy artery in the Strait of 
Hormuz and bury the hollow prestige of billion-dollar Yankee warships in the 
depths of the Persian Gulf," the newspaper said.

   Death toll slowly rises

   On Wednesday, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said the 
violence in Iran has killed at least 6,373 people in recent weeks, with many 
more feared dead. Its count included at least 5,993 protesters, 214 
government-affiliated forces, 113 children and 53 civilians who weren't 
demonstrating. More than 42,450 have been arrested, it added.

   The group verifies each death and arrest with a network of activists on the 
ground, and has been accurate in multiple rounds of previous unrest in Iran. 
The communication cutoff imposed by Iranian authorities have slowed the full 
scale of the crackdown from being revealed, and The Associated Press has been 
unable to independently assess the death toll.

   Iran's government as of Jan. 21 put the death toll at a far lower 3,117, 
saying 2,427 were civilians and security forces and labeled the rest 
"terrorists." In the past, Iran's theocracy has undercounted or not reported 
fatalities from unrest.

   That death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest in Iran 
in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding the 1979 Islamic Revolution.