On Thursday, April 9, USDA will release the April issue of Crop Production and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. It is typically a quiet event and the last WASDE to focus solely on the 2025-26 marketing year.

CORN

After reaching a peak in mid-March following the onset of the war in the Middle East, corn futures have since turned lower, as USDA's most recent March 31 reports found a record March 1 supply of corn in the U.S. USDA is also estimating larger-than-expected corn plantings in 2026 at 95.3 million acres. Despite the turn lower in futures over the past couple of weeks, trend and moving average support near $4.50 has held for now. Traders are currently holding their most bullish price bet position-wise in a year and likely wish to see how the planting season develops before deciding the next move.

As for Thursday's WASDE, I don't expect it to be an event that encourages drastic position swings, as the May WASDE tends to hold more information for traders to work from. However, there is always the chance for a surprise and a few categories to which adjustments could be justified.

As for demand, exports remain the bullish argument, with commitment pace as of the most recent Foreign Agricultural Service report still running 29% ahead of the same point in 2025, with USDA forecasting a 15% year-over-year increase in corn exports as of the March WASDE. However, the bearish argument is that corn usage for ethanol (through February) remains behind the expected USDA pace. I also remain skeptical of the feed and residual category, with USDA expecting a record 6.2 billion bushels (bb) of disappearance despite lower cattle on feed numbers and only slightly higher feeder hog numbers as compared to 2024-25 as well. Essentially, if the feed and residual is truly this high, it would be to correct a past error in estimating 2025 supplies, though the record level March 1 stocks found in the March 31 survey results suggests that any such error adjustment would be marginal. Dow Jones' pre-report survey of 15 analysts is calling for U.S. corn ending stocks to land at 2.143 bb, up slightly from 2.127 bb in March.

In terms of the world corn balance sheets, adjustments are also expected to be minimal on Thursday. South American production will once again be in the spotlight, with a slight upward revision expected to Brazil's crop following a strong first crop. Given that 75% of Brazilian corn production comes via the second "safrinha" crop, I expect USDA to hold off on any big adjustments to Brazil's outlook with that growing season just underway. In Argentina, corn harvest is roughly 20% complete as of last week, and yield reports thus far are mostly good. Recall that USDA cut its forecast for Argentine production by 1 million metric tons (mmt) to 52 mmt in the March WASDE. Local agencies in Argentina such as the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and Rosario Grain Exchange are forecasting production well above USDA at 57 mmt and 62 mmt, respectively. It will be interesting to see if USDA backtracks on its March revision given the strong close to the growing season. Across the globe, analysts expect slightly higher corn stocks, with the Dow Jones survey calling for 293.2 mmt versus 292.8 mmt in March. If accurate, this would be the lowest world corn reserves in over a decade, since the 2014-15 marketing year.

SOYBEANS

Since falling the daily limit on March 16 after President Donald Trump postponed his planned trip to China (now rescheduled for mid-May), soybean futures have stabilized. Bearish arguments of slowing export demand and a six-year high in March 1 reserves were countered by lower-than-expected planting intentions at the end of March and supportive EPA biofuel mandates finalized during the last week of March. The latter has sent soybean oil futures back to contract highs and above 70 cents per lb. for the first time since late 2022.

Turning to the U.S. soybean balance sheet, I again expect few, if any, changes from USDA on Thursday. The analysts surveyed by Dow Jones averaged a guess for Thursday's soybean ending stocks forecast to land at 348 million bushels (mb), down from 350 mb in March, which can be more or less attributed to a rounding error. The range of estimates is 315 mb to 375 mb, so opinion remains split on where demand will land this season. And to be fair, the debate is unlikely to be solved on Thursday's report alone. The bearish concern continues to be the export pace, with commitments running 18% behind the same point in 2025, which has been the case now for the better part of two months. USDA may see its current forecast of 1.575 bb, a 16% decline, as close enough with just under five months left in the marketing season and a pivotal trade meeting upcoming between President Trump and China's President Xi next month. In terms of domestic demand, the crush program continues to exceed expectations, with volume through February running 8.3% ahead of 2024-25 and USDA forecasting a 5.3% year-over-year growth to crush, as of the March WASDE. With May crush premiums challenging all-time highs and just under an incredible $4-per-bushel gross, USDA may have enough evidence to push its estimate yet again in Thursday's update.

On the world balance sheet, I again expect few surprises from USDA on Thursday. Market focus will likely continue to go to South America. But with Brazil's crop in the final stages of harvest, there is little denying the record size of the crop, and at this point, any adjustments are for the sake of fine-tuning. As of the March WASDE, USDA's estimate for a 180 mmt crop is a touch higher than local Brazilian agency's such as CONAB and AgRural, which are both in the 178 mmt area. For Thursday, the average trade guess on the Dow Jones survey is calling for a slight cut to 179.8 mmt. But of the 12 firms offering an estimate, seven see Brazilian production unaltered at 180 mmt. In Argentina, soybean conditions have improved over the past month, with harvest just getting started over the past week or so. Given the early stage of harvest, the expectation is for no change to the production estimate (48 mmt in March), with a slight bias higher should USDA choose to make a change. The small (if any) changes to the U.S.', Brazil's and Argentina's balance sheets are expected to be reflected in a stable complete world picture, with world stocks expected to land near 125.5 mmt (125.3 mmt in March) and still the largest on record.

WHEAT

Given the time of year, most of the market's attention has shifted to weather and the developing winter wheat crop in the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere. Recently, wheat prices have rallied to calendar-year highs as drought and crop conditions worsened through the central and southern U.S. Plains in March. Futures retreated in recent sessions on better rainfall chances through the first half of April.

However, Thursday's report will focus solely on the 2025-26 season, which ends in the U.S. on May 31. For this reason, I don't expect much of a market reaction to Thursday's numbers, though there are some categories to watch for changes. The export business has been very resilient despite a high degree of competition around the globe. Commitments are running 14% of the same point in 2025 heading into the final stretch of the marketing year, with USDA forecasting a 9% year-over-year increase. In fact, as of March 26, commitments total 886 mb, just 14 mb of sales short of USDA's goal, although shipments are what count at the end of the day. Personally, I am estimating wheat ending stocks to land near 910 mb by May 31, compared to 931 mb from USDA last month. The Dow Jones survey is calling for 921 mb, with estimates ranging from 890 mb to 941 mb.

Within the world wheat market, the situation is similar to the U.S., with most attention shifting to the next cycle of crops as well as increased uncertainty amid the conflict in the Middle East and the disruption of fertilizer trade out of the Persian Gulf. In Thursday's report, USDA is likely to fine-tune international trade and demand figures to prepare for the unveiling of 2026-27 balance sheets in the May WASDE. USDA estimated world wheat reserves at 277 mmt in the March WASDE. The Dow Jones survey is estimating, on average, a marginal uptick to 277.3 mmt and still the largest in five years if accurate.

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Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Thursday, April 9, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Thursday's USDA WASDE webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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