By DTN Staff

This article was originally published at 11:07 a.m. CST on Monday, Jan. 12. It was last updated with additional information at 11:30 a.m. CST on Monday, Jan. 12.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- In a surprise to corn market observers, USDA on Monday raised corn production to more than 17 billion bushels by bumping up the corn yield by 0.5 bushel and increasing harvested acres.

The corn yield is now forecast at 186.5 bushels per acre (bpa), way above analysts' pre-report estimates. USDA also bumped up harvested acres by 1.3 million acres to 91.3 million acres.

USDA released its Crop Production Annual Summary, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), quarterly Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings reports on Monday.

Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often. We will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Monday's reports, including commentary from our analysts.

Monday's U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, bearish for soybeans and bearish for wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. Monday's world ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn, bearish for soybeans and bearish for wheat, he said.

You can also view the full reports here:

-- Crop Production Annual, Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

Corn production is now pegged at a record 17.02 billion bushels (bb) with yield forecast at 186.5 bpa and harvested acres at 91.3 million acres.

USDA also bumped up old-crop carryover, raising beginning stocks by 19 million bushels (mb) to 1.551 bb.

On the demand side, feed and residual use came in at 6.2 bb, up 100 mb from December.

Food, seed, residual use and industrial use is projected at 6.97 bb, down 10 mb from December.

Ethanol use is pegged at 5.6 bb, the same as last month.

Total domestic use is forecast at 13.17 bb, up 90 mb from last month.

Exports are pegged at 3.2 bb, the same as December.

Ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop were raised to 2.227 bb, up 198 mb from last month

The farmgate price for corn was raised 10 cents to $4.10 a bushel.

The quarterly Grain Stocks report for corn showed stocks in all positions on Dec. 1, 2025, totaled 13.3 bb, up 10% from a year ago. Of total stocks, 8.7 bb were stored on farms, up 14% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 4.58 bb, up 4% from a year ago. Usage for the quarter from September-November came in at 5.29 bb, compared to 4.58 for the same quarter last year.

Globally, corn beginning stocks for the 2025-26 corn crop came in at 294.7 million metric tons (mmt), up 1.33 mmt. Global production was raised to 1,296.01 mmt, up 13.05 mmt. Exports globally were raised slightly to 205.11 mmt. That puts projected global ending stocks at 290.91 mmt, up 11.76 mmt from last month. USDA held pat on Ukraine's production at 29 mmt, and Ukraine's exports came in at 23 mmt.

SOYBEANS

Production: USDA said farmers harvested 4.262 billion bushels in 2025, higher than the December estimate but within the range of pre-report expectations. USDA left its yield estimate unchanged at 53 bpa, while slightly increasing harvested acreage to 80.4 million.

Grain Stocks: USDA said soybeans stored in all positions as of Dec. 1 totaled 3.29 billion bushels, 6% higher than the previous year and within the range of expectations. On-farm stocks totaled 1.58 billion bushels, while supplies held off-farm totaled 1.71 bb. Usage from September to November totaled 1.3 bb, down 20% from the same time last year.

Supply and Demand: Ending stocks for the 2025-26 growing season totaled 350 mb, up 60 mb from last month's estimates and toward the low end of pre-report estimates. Beginning stocks were revised up 9 mb, while production increased by 9 mb, accounting for the increased harvested acreage. In addition to higher supplies, USDA raised crush estimates by 15 mb to 2.57 bb while cutting exports by 60 mb to 1.575 bb. Seed use was left unchanged at 73 mb while residual increased by 2 mb to 39 mb. As a result, total use was 4.257 bb.

The national average farm gate price was cut by 30 cents to $10.20 per bushel.

Globally, ending stocks climbed to 124.41 mmt, up 2.04 mmt from last month and slightly above the range of pre-report expectations. USDA boosted Brazilian production by 3 mmt to 178 mmt, while leaving Argentina unchanged at 48.5 mmt.

WHEAT

USDA estimates U.S. wheat ending stocks at 926 million bushels, up from 901 mb in December's report.

Seed demand is pegged at 61 mb, a decrease from 62 mb in December. Feed and residual use is estimated at 100 mb, down from 120 mb in December.

Total use was estimated at 2.033 billion bushels, decreased from December's estimate of 2.054 bb. Exports are estimated at 900 mb, unchanged from last month. The farmgate price is estimated at $4.90, down from $5.00 last month.

From the Grain Stocks report, wheat stored in all positions on Dec. 1, 2025, totaled 1.68 billion bushels, up 7% from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 446 million bushels, down 4% from last December. Off-farm stocks, at 1.23 billion bushels, are up 11% from a year ago. The September to November 2025 indicated use is 459 million bushels, 9% above the same period a year earlier.

Globally, ending stocks were pegged at 278.25 million metric tons, an increase from 274.87 mmt in December.

Exports are estimated at 44.0 mmt for Russia, unchanged from last month, and 14.0 mmt for Ukraine, slightly down from 14.5 mmt in December.

Production in Australia was estimated at 37.0 mmt, unchanged from December. Production in Argentina was estimated at 27.5 mmt, up from 24.0 mmt last month.

WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS

USDA estimates the planted area for harvest in 2026 at 33.0 million acres, which is down less than 1% from last year and down 2% from 2024. USDA said it is expecting a record-low planted area in California and Nebraska, at 280 ma and 850 ma, respectively.

Seeding of the 2026 acreage was underway in early September, USDA said. Planting reached 97% complete by Nov. 23, and emergence stood at 87% complete.

Hard red winter wheat seeded area is expected to total 23.5 million acres, which is down slightly from 2025. The largest increase in planted acreage is estimated in Oklahoma, according to USDA, while Montana is estimated to have the largest decrease.

USDA estimates soft red winter wheat seeded area at 6.14 million acres, just less than 1% percent higher compared to 2025. Compared with last

year, the largest acreage increase is expected in Ohio, while the largest acreage decrease is expected in Tennessee.

USDA pegs white winter wheat seeded area at 3.36 million acres, down 5% from 2025. Idaho, Oregon and Washington are expecting decreased acreage.

LIVESTOCK

Monday's WASDE report shared mostly supportive news for the cattle and beef markets of 2026, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.

"Beef production for 2026 was increased by 10 million pounds as carcass weights continue to grow. Quarterly steer prices are mostly increased from last month's estimate, as steers in the first quarter are expected to average $232 (up $2 from December), steers in the second quarter are expected to average $234 (unchanged from December), steers in the third quarter are expected to average $237 (up $1 from December) and steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $240. Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 75 million pounds, as shipments from Oceania and South America are expected to continue. Beef exports for 2026 were decreased by 60 million pounds as the price of beef remains a limiting export factor," Stewart said.

Monday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork industry of 2026, Stewart said.

"Pork production for 2026 was increased by 740 million pounds, as the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report in December shared that there are more hogs in the countryside than originally assumed. The quarterly price projections didn't change from December, as hogs in the first quarter are anticipated to average $64, hogs in the second quarter are expected to average $70, hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $72 and hogs in the fourth quarter are expected to average $61. Pork imports for 2026 increased by 15 million pounds, and pork exports for 2026 increased by 60 million pounds."

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Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CST on Monday, Jan. 12, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Monday's USDA January reports webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

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